Razboi si pace. Cu Rusia

Am citit un foarte bun comentariu al lui Nicu Popescu despre politica europeana si declinul Rusiei – Why the EU should stop waiting for the Godot of Russian decline

Un punct de vedere absolut pertinent al lui Nicu Popescu. In viziunea sa europenii nu pot paria pe declinul Moscovei, dimpotriva, ar trebui sa interactioneze strategic. Autorul apreciaza ca multi lideri europeni considera ca Rusia este o putere in declin si din aceasta cauza prefera „rabdarea strategica”. Sa asteptam ca Moscova sa faca implozie.

Pledoaria lui Nicu Popescu bazata pe analogii cu evolutia istorica a altor puteri este ca avem state cu declin liniar dar avem si state cu o evolutie ciclica, state care depasesc faza de declin si care recupereaza din putere si influenta in etape mai lungi sau mai scurte. Ar fi si cazul Moscovei.


Ce nu ne spune Nicu este daca Europa poate sa genereze o interactiune strategica alta decat rabdarea strategica ?
Vedem ca Germania are o abordare strategica cu Rusia, poate au si Franta, UK si Polonia.


Aceasta ar fi o explicatie de ce altii lideri europeni prefera rabdarea strategica atata timp cat tari europene puternice au o interactiune strategica in plan bilateral.
Pentru moment in Europa, interactiunea strategica ramane, mai ales pentru Rusia, Germania, Franta, UK, o problema de bilateralism.
Asa cum speram ca Rusia va intra in declin asa speram si ca UE va deveni o putere geopolitica undeva in viitor. Pana atunci relatiile bilaterale regleaza o parte din nevoia europenilor de a avea o politica activa cu Moscova.

Iar predictia privind declinul Moscovei ar putea fi doar un motiv de suprafata invocat pentru ca este convenabil si justifica politicile externe nationale de diferite orientari, mai pro sau mai anti rusesti.


Concluziile mele.
Lipsa de interactiune strategica europeana cu Rusia se bazeaza doar partial pe predictia ca Rusia va intra in declin. Mai sunt si alti factori care explica acest deficit. Interesele nationale, istoria relatiilor bilaterale, dependenta economica.


Indiferent ce se intampla cu Rusia in viitor, europenii nu pot sta indiferenti fata de lipsa lor de viziune strategica dar mai ales la divergentele dintre diferiti actori nationali.


Nu putem cere europenilor sa stabileasca o interactiune strategica cu Rusia fara o maturizare geopolitica a Europei. Pana atunci vor coexista mai multe directii. Un trend de inactiune strategica, interacțiuni bilaterale dominante din partea Germaniei, Frantei etc. si o eterogenitate neutra din partea tarilor mici.

Khoroshaya doroga, Gaspadin Putin !

Am vaga impresie ca presedintele V. Putin incepe sa impacheteze, ca poate e nevoie sa isi gaseasca o dacha (izba, coteț- kottedzh) mai mica, mai linistita, sa lase locul unui nou lider- un nou papasha din Saint Petersburg- ca acolo e bucataria.
Pare ca se consolideaza o Filiera liberala „Saint Petersburg” sau mai pe romaneste sa ii zicem tabara „anti-Medvedev” – in 2010 Alexei Leonidovich Kudrin (dat jos de Medvedev in 2011) il propulseaza pe Mikhail Mishustin.

2010- MOSCOW. (Interfax) – Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin, who is also the country’s finance minister, has sent the government the proposal that Mikhail Mishustin be appointed chief of the Federal Tax Service (FTS) to replace the departing Mikhail Mokretsov, a Finance Ministry press release says.
Mishustin became president of UFG in March of 2008. UFG is one of the biggest companies working in Russia in asset management, direct investments, and mutual investment funds together with Deutsche Bank.
Mishustin holds a doctorate in economic science, is the author of a monograph on informational-technological mechanisms of state tax administration, and another on informational-technological foundations.
Mokretsov has headed the FTS since February 2007, when his predecessor Anatoly Serdyukov was appointed Russian defense minister.
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After Serdyukov was appointed defense minister in February of 2007 he remained de facto curator of the Federal Tax Service for a few years more (until coming of new director Mikhail Mishustin in April of 2010). Serdyukov visited the tax service permanently, according to his former colleagues, and issued directives to the remaining members of his team: acting director of the Federal Tax Service Mikhail Mokretsov and his deputies Sinikova and Tatiana Shevtsova.

2011- MEDVEDEV INDIGNANT WITH TAX SERVICE MISTAKES FOR ORDINARY PEOPLE
GORKI (Moscow region), February 24 (Itar-Tass) — Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is extremely indignant with the mistakes, which the Federal Taxation Service had made to the detriment of ordinary people. „The situation is outrageous,” the president said at a meeting with the chief of the Federal Taxation Service Mikhail Mishustin.

Mishustin noted that the taxation service announced the year of 2011 „the year of struggle against dirty data.” He hopes that the Federal Taxation Service will make fewer mistakes in tax bills with the incorrect figures or at wrong addresses. „Then these citizens (who did not receive tax bills) turn into tax dodgers and, for instance, cannot go abroad,” Medvedev said.

Explaining the mistakes Mishustin referred to the incorrect database. „People are not feeling easier because of this,” the president noted and asked whether the state bears responsibility towards people for the improper performance of public duties. „It is common practice in the whole world; we commit many violations, but this does not mean that people cannot complain about them,” he believes. The president instructed the tax chief to minimize the number of mistakes in the work of the taxation service and „to ponder over” an opportunity to improve the mistakes done, including compensations to people.

2010- Shevtsova was dismissed from the Federal Tax Service only in May of 2010 after new Director of the Federal Tax Service Mikhail Mishustin started reorganization of the service. Deputy Director of the Federal Tax Service Nadezhda Sinikova who left the service together with her was appointed director of the Federal Agency for Supply of Armament, Military and Special hardware and Material (Rosoboronpostavka), which was recently subordinated to the Defense Ministry. Former Director of the Federal Tax Service Mikhail Mokretsov became director of the staff of the Defense Minister in April and this week his status was upgraded to rank of a deputy minister.

2008 – ALPATOV PUT IN CHARGE OF FEDERAL AGENCY FOR SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES
MOSCOW, February 29 (Itar-Tass) – Andrei Alpatov has been appointed as the head of the Federal Agency for Special Economic Zones, Economic Development and Trade Minister Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday.
Alpatov succeeded to Mikhail Mishustin, who had volunteered to leave the position.
„It was an anticipated or even deliberate resignation,” Nabiullina said. „Mishustin fully accomplished his mission.”

Meanwhile, Mishustin said he planned to go into business and join „a large financial and investment company.” He said he would sign a contract with his new employer within two or three weeks, in late March.
He also said he would be a free-lance consultant of the tax administering, information technologies and special economic zones minister.
Prior to the appointment, Alpatov was Mishustin’s deputy.

Intre Bruxelles si Levant – Radio Romania Actualitati

Saptamana trecuta am participat la emisiunea Euroatlantica de la Radio Romania Actualitati la invitatia producatoului Nicu Popescu. Impreuna cu Radu Dobritoiu am discutat despre evolutia din Siria, Afganistan, NATO si relatia Rusia-Ungaria.

Transcrierea emisunii o gasiti aici. Intre Bruxelles si Levant.

Primul condominium ruso-turc în Orientul Mijlociu

Rusia și Turcia au căzut de acord asupra unei zone sigure în spațiul vizat de operatiunea militara a Turciei.

Acest acord poate fi considerat ca primul condominium ruso-turc din Orientul Mijlociu. Nu cred că s-ar fi ajuns la acest acord daca nu ar fi existat o coordonarea diplomatica americano-rusă. Americanii au reusit sa obtina o incetare a focului care a oferit timp destul si a permis Rusiei să medieze negocierea tripartita turco-siriana-kurda si sa negicieze un acord cu Erdogan.

Uniunea Europeana înregistreaza un esec semnificativ de politica externa fiind spectator la decizia care va crea un precedent important pentru Siria.

Mai multe detalii despre acest acord gasiti aici – Turkey, Russia agree on new Syria accord iar mai jos aveti inregistrarea conferintei de presa de la Soci.

Federatia Rusa si echilibrul de putere in secolul al XXI-lea – lansare de carte

Astazi particip la lansarea volumului ”Federatia Rusa si echilibrul de putere in secolul al XXI-lea”  coordonat de lect.univ.dr. Eugen Lungu. Volumul a aparut la Editura Militara si sub egida Universitatii Titu Maiorescu. Am scris si eu un capitol cu scenarii privind Federatia Rusa si regiunea Marii Negre in 2025. Capitolul este bazat pe o prezentare facuta in 2015 in contextul conflictului din Ucraina.