Brexit de facto – schita planurilor de criza

Haosul

Agonia Brexitului va deveni istorica si se va studia in scoli ca unul dintre cele mai controversate momente din istoria Europei. Pentru expertii in integrare, Brexitul va fi mana cereasca in plan teoretic. Acum vedem multe brese in constructia proiectului european, evaluam lideri in momente tensionate si putem analiza curentul euroscepetic in aspecte mai putin anticipate.

Toate semnalele dinspre legislativul de la Londra par sa indice ca acordul negociat nu va fi baza iesirii Marii Britanii din UE. Iar daca va fi o prelungire agreata de UE, ea va fi una pur tehnica si nu va permite negcierea unui alt acord.

Theresa May

Evaluarea

Cred ca intram in faza pregatitoare, destul de scurta, a unui Brexit de facto in care partile vor aplica fiecare un scenariu de iesire fara acord. Partea complicata vine atunci cand trebuie sa anticipam ce fel de criza va genera masurile unilaterale continute de planurile pregatite separat de Londra si Bruxelles.

In toata aceasta harababura exista totusi o speranta. Am in vedere ca partile au negociat un acord comprehensiv care sta la baz aunui plan comun, partile isi cunosc rolurile, obligatiile si setul d emasuri agreate. Asta ar trebui sa ne sugereze ca negocierea nu a fost in zadar. Cele doua planuri de rezerva pentru no-deal de fapt au fost elaborate in paralel si, este presupunerea mea, au copiat o parte din prevederile acordului.

Perspective

Negocierea in sine si rezultatul ei, adica proiectul de acord raman cele doua instrumente prin care au fost influentate planurile de rezerva si au fost pregatite institutiile, decidentii si publicul in general in ambele tabere.

Deci exista potential ca aceste planuri sa fie legate mai tare sau mai slab, adica sa se coordoneze chiar daca din punct de vedere politic nu exista lumina verde pentru acord. Aceste forme de coordonare, mai mult de natura operationala si administrativa, fara o decizie strategica, au fost generate si de o serie de intelegeri si acorduri bilaterale realizate de Londra cu tari precum Franta, Germania si Olanda.

Am scris o schita (format PDF – aveti un link de descarcare) sub forma unei matrice, pentru a identifica zonele in care cele doua posibile planuri de criza interactioneaza, tipurile de interactiune (necoordonare, semi-coodonare si coordonare) si posibile pachete de masuri care sunt incluse in aceste planuri de criza. Materialul poate fi descarcat si folosit cu mentionarea sursei: „Claudiu Degeratu https://claudiudegeratu.ro” .

in final, cred ca UE are o obligatie de constiinta pentru a implementa un plan suplimentar de sprijin pentru UK. In cazul in care amplitudinea crizei ar depasi capacitatea de rezilienta din UK din anumite sectoare cum ar fi sectorul medical, lupta anti-terorista sau serviciile din sectorul educational, Bruxellesul va trebui sa ajute. UE poate sa ofere asistenta daca ne vom confrunta cu aspecte umanitare.

Securitatea cibernetica europeana

Vreau sa semnalez o decizie recenta importanta pentru politica europeana in domeniul securitatii cibernetice. In cadrul programului UE Horizon 2020  (programul dispune de 80 mild. Euro pe perioada 2014-2020), dedicat cercetarii si inovarii, au fost selectate 4 mari proiecte prin care va fi dezvoltatat conceptul pilot operational pentru viitoarea retea europeana pentru competente in domeniul secuirtatii cibernetice. Decizia contribuie si la European Cybersecurity Research & Innovation Roadmap, un obiectiv inportant al programului Horizon 2020.

Pare foarte tehnic tot ce am scris mai sus, mai simplu spus se urmareste stabilirea unui cadru comun de competente pentru orice responsabil pe domeniul securitate cibernetica din Europa. Acest obiectiv va contribui la o aplicare uniforma a bunelor practici in domeniu, la interoperabilitatea dintre tari si la stabilirea unor programe de educatie si formare cu standarde europene agreate de catre toti memebri UE.

Cele 4 proiecte sunt importante si recomand sa le urmariti.

CONCORDIA

„CONCORDIA is a four-year multi-disciplinary research and innovation project, and will play a leadership role in boosting the effectiveness of EU’s security union. The project, started in January 2019, is coordinated by the Research Institute CODE from the Bundeswehr University Munich and involves 46 partners in total.”

CONCORDIA will help Europe strengthen its security capabilities and to secure its digital society, economy and the fundamental data society’s principles for both security and privacy.
CONCORDIA adopts an inclusive approach, fostering a wide alliance spanning Europe’s research, industry and public sectors, and including key professionals from a variety of fields. By developing innovative, marketable solutions to protect Europe against cyber attacks, CONCORDIA will capitalize on Europe’s unique pool of skills and talents in the area of ICT and cybersecurity to also establish an European Education Ecosystem for Cybersecurity. The project will be a fundamental instrument for promoting excellent research, market innovation, skill building, and a research roadmap for cybersecurity in Europe. In this context, the vision of CONCORDIA is to create a community, building bridges and setting the foundations for strong cooperation between all stakeholders. The EU budget contribution is 16 M€ with a 7 M€ additional funding contributed by national authorities and industry.

ECHO

The ECHO project (European network of Cybersecurity centres and competence Hub for innovation and Operations) is one of four Pilot projects, launched by the European Commission, to establish and operate a Cybersecurity Competence Network. Amid keynote presentations from supporting representatives of EU agencies and industry, the project was officially launched at the Conference Hall of the Royal Military Academy of Belgium, on February 25th, 2019.

The ECHO project will deliver an organized and coordinated approach to strengthen proactive cyber defence in the European Union, through effective and efficient multi-sector collaboration. The project already involves 30 partners from the East to the West of Europe, and is actively engaging new partners interested to contribute to the cybersecurity resilience of the EU and in reaching the collaboration goals.
Through the project, the ECHO partners will develop, model and demonstrate a network of cybersecurity research and competence, with a centre of research and competence at the hub. While technology companies struggle with a fragmented view of security requirements across industrial sectors and fragmented national policies for security test and certification, the ECHO project will contribute an adaptive model for information sharing and collaboration among the network of partners and related agencies.

SPARTA

SPARTA is a novel Cybersecurity Competence Network, supported by the EU’s H2020 program, with the objective to develop and implement top-tier research and innovation collaborative actions.
Strongly guided by concrete challenges forming an ambitious Cybersecurity Research & Innovation Roadmap, SPARTA will setup unique collaboration means, leading the way in building transformative capabilities and forming a world-leading Cybersecurity Competence Network across the EU. From basic human needs (health) to economic activities (energy, finance, and transport) to technologies (ICT and industry) to sovereignty (eGovernment, public administration), four research and innovation programs will push the boundaries to deliver advanced solutions to cover emerging challenges.
The SPARTA consortium, led by CEA, assembles a balanced set of 44 actors from 14 EU Member States at the intersection of scientific excellence, technological innovation, and societal sciences in cybersecurity. Together, along with SPARTA Associates, they aim at re-imagining the way cybersecurity research, innovation, and training are performed in Europe across domains and expertise, from foundations to applications, in academia and industry.

CyberSec4Europe

CyberSec4Europe will align and interconnect a vast pool of research excellence in existing centres and research facilities, bringing together cybersecurity expertise in an interdisciplinary manner while developing a governance model for the future European Cybersecurity Competence Network. The 43 consortium partners will consolidate and reinforce cooperation and synergies between the research and industrial communities, including SMEs. The 42-month project will strengthen the research and innovation competence and cybersecurity capacities of Member States to meet the increasing number of cybersecurity challenges in the future.

The project has identified key demonstration cases in different industrial domains, including finance, healthcare, transportation and smart cities. These address prominent research areas in both the public and private sectors that correspond closely with real-world issues, cyber threats and security problems. Another important outcome will be the development of a cybersecurity skills framework model to be used as a reference by education providers, employers and citizens.

Lead Co-ordinator, Professor Dr. Kai Rannenberg, Goethe University Frankfurt, says: “On behalf of the CyberSec4Europe consortium of partners, we are extremely grateful to the European Commission for this opportunity to explore one of the most exciting initiatives in the area of multi-disciplinary, cross-sector cybersecurity research and innovation in Europe. We are very excited to be at the forefront of efforts to address the challenges in developing a common European approach to cybersecurity while protecting core European values such as privacy and the rights of smaller market players such as consumers and SMEs.”

The CyberSec4Europe contract starts with immediate effect and will last until July 2022 at a total cost of 16 MEUR.

Pesta porcina africana in Romania

Am citit la Digi-FM o stire „Comisia Europeană trimite o misiune neplanificată pentru a verifica ce au făcut autoritățile din România pentru a preîntâmpina izbucnirea epidemiei de pestă porcină.” Stirea o gasiti aici.

Probabil vor trece mai multe saptamani pana cand delegatia de experti va redacta raportul privind situatia din Romania.

Daca veti fi curiosi sa vedeti comparativ concluziile acestei echipe cu concluziile unei echipe din partea ONU- Food and Agriculture Organization si World Organisation for Animal Health, inspectie efectuata in Romania in 11-14 Decembrie 2017, va las mai jos raportul lor. Documentul contine recomandari la nivel de tara si informari privind situatia din judetul Satu-Mare.

Textul Raportului 

GF-TADs ASF SGE mission – Romania (Dec2017 – FINAL)

 

 

Declaratia de la Bratislava

Am citit Declaratia de la Bratislava . Continutul mi se simptomatic pentru starea de preocupare din randul membrilor. Important este ca avem in premiera sprijin pentru un proces care totusi promite o focalizare pe obiective mai usor de urmarit.

Concluzia mea este că Declaratia ofera un roadmap pentru UE dar nu si pentru tarile membre.

De exemplu, la captiolul introductiv se declara solemn ca:

„Need to be clear about what the EU can do, and what is for the Member States to do, to make sure we can deliver on our promises.”

Daca insa citim restul declaratiei vom observa lipsa unei liste to-do pentru tarile membre.

 

 

Brexit Nr. 2

Ar fi de citit articolul lui John Palmer- A Second Referendum – But What About?  despre actuala stare de fapt din societate si guvernul britanic. Autorul este clar preocupat nu atat de dezbaterile privind organizarea unui nou Brexit, cat de faptul ca un asemenea proces va fi pentru a doua oara un proces cu deficiente. Primul Brexit a avut doua hibe mari. Prima, lipsa unor intrebari care sa indice solutiile privind calea de urmat (un exemplu ar fi natura granitei dintre Irlanda si Irlanda de Nord) si a doua, lipsa unor informatii privind implicatiile post-Brexit.

Both factions in the government are struggling to articulate a detailed Article 50 negotiating mandate handicapped by the dearth of trade expertise in Whitehall. The UK lost most of its foreign trade competence to the EU 40 years ago, but the Brexiteers had no idea of how acute the shortage of expertise really was until they took office.