Trump testeaza Europa si o sugestie

Pentru cei care dezbat mesajele presedintelui D. Trump

Legat de interviul acordat recent de  presedintele Donald Trump am de facut  o sugestie privind unul dintre mesajele emise de liderul american.

Via NYTimes:

On Russia, Mr. Trump said he hoped to strike a deal with President Vladimir V. Putin to reduce nuclear weapons stockpiles. He suggested that such an agreement could be part of a broader easing of tensions that would include lifting economic sanctions imposed after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

“They have sanctions on Russia — let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia,” he said. “For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it. Russia’s hurting very badly right now because of sanctions, but I think something can happen that a lot of people are going to benefit.”    

Sugestia mea pentru cei care vor sa comenteze acest mesaj ar fi ca intai sa citeasca un articol din 2015.

28 October 2015  Time for a different kind of US-Russian arms control By Adam Mount

The outlook isn’t good. New START, which entered into force in 2011, remains the sole bright spot in bilateral arms control: It calls for each country to reduce its arsenal of deployed strategic warheads to no more than 1,550 by February, 2018, a goal the United States met this month and that Russia is on track to achieve. Unless the parties agree to extend its limits for another five years, the treaty will remain in force until 2021. However, this timeline interacts with the US electoral cycle in an unfortunate way: A year after the next president assumes office, the United States and Russia will be under no further bilateral obligation to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons. In fact, the next president could legally halt the gradual decline that has continued uninterrupted since the first bilateral arms limitation treaties were concluded in the 1980s.

Ce sugerez este ca deja Donald Trump isi intra in rol, preia rapid si agresiv directiile externe prioritare pentru SUA.

Mai trebuie remarcat un lucru. Asocierea negocierilor nucleare cu problema sanctiunilor este un mesaj pentru europeni, in special pentru cancelarul german A. Merkel.

A doua parte a sugestiei.

Daca SUA decide sa realizeze  un pachet de negociere in care va introduce un schimb de tipul ridicarea sanctiunilor impotriva Rusiei pentru o intelegerea nucleara atunci acordul Minsk II, adica intelegerea cu Rusia care prevede ca un progres in teren ar putea duce la ridicarea sanctiunilor,  va primi o lovitura grea de la americani. Mai precis Franta si Germania, tarile principale din formatul Normandia vor fi trase pe linie moarta impreuna cu tot acordul de la Minsk. Daca SUA va ridica unilateral sanctiunile atunci Germania si Franta vor primi o lovitura privind credibilitatea lor ca actori internationali.


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